Parity

Parity is running rampant in the NFL this year.

Just when everyone thought they had figured out who was good and who wasn't this season, Week 4 came along and threw them (along with me) for a loop.

Among the seemingly impossible upsets this week were the Broncos losing to the Chiefs, the Redskins being beaten by the Cowboys, and the Bears squeaking by the Eagles.

There are no great teams in the NFL this season. 

I can't even pick a Super Bowl favourite anymore. The NFL is wide open and in order to clear my mind for next Sunday, I'm going to go over the teams that I consider to have a shot in hell at making the big game.

AFC

1. Pittsburgh

I still think the Steelers have the best shot at representing the AFC in the Super Bowl this year. Along with Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger is the best quarterback in the AFC and makes plays even when he's being harrassed by numerous defensive lineman. The Steelers also have great playmakers at their offensive skill positions and the defence is as good as they come.

The Problem: Their only real weakness is their offensive line, which was exposed big time in a loss to the Eagles last Sunday. I don't know if I've ever seen a quarterback take as much abuse as Roethlisberger did in that game and I'm shocked he hasn't gotten seriously injured yet. If he continues to get smashed, Roethlisberger won't last the season and without him, the Steelers have no hope.

2. Buffalo

I'm a big Bills fan this season and I fully expect them to win the AFC East. Trent Edwards is better than solid and the Bills have solid playmakers on offence. Rookie wide receiver James Hardy should eventually emerge as a top wide receiver and Marshawn Lynch is the AFC's version of Marion Barber running the ball (an absolute killer). The Bills have a very solid defence and have been great on special teams so far, although the injury to Roscoe Parrish will hurt them in that area for a few weeks.

The Problem: Even though the Bills don't have any real weaknesses, I'm not sure if they're good enough in any area to win it all. They are solid from top to bottom, but they don't really have anyone who is exceptional aside from Lynch. If Trent Edwards continues to improve and the Bills can stay healthy, they have a real shot at doing some damage.

3. Indianapolis

Sure, the Colts are 1-2 and look to be down and out, but with the AFC being so wide open, they aren't dead yet. Manning and Co. still have more than 3/4 of a season to put it all together on offence and if that happens, they'll be as dangerous as ever. The more things change, the more they stay the same and Peyton very well could be the last man standing in the AFC this year.

The Problem: Clearly the Colts have not been their old selves so far this year. Peyton Manning is still getting into game shape and the Colts have to make sure they don't fall too far behind. Also, their defence has been abysmal and matters could get much worse with safety Bob Sanders being out for an extended period of time. Indianapolis must solidify their defence at least a little bit if they expect to go all the way.

4. Denver Broncos

Despite losing to the Chiefs this week, I'm still going to say that the Broncos have the best offence in the NFL. Jay Cutler is firing on all cylinders, and Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal may be the most explosive one-two punch at wide receiver in the entire league. Throw in two solid tight ends (Tony Scheffler and Daniel Graham) and a running back by committee approach that seems to keep everyone fresh, and Denver could score their way to an AFC title.

The Problem: Denver's defence is one of the worst in the league. As proven this Sunday, the Broncos have a shot to lose every game in spite of their exceptional offence.

5. Tennessee Titans

Honestly, I haven't seen much of Tennessee yet this season, but I'm putting them up here because of their 4-0 record. They've beaten a couple of solid teams already this season and look to be the best of the worst in the AFC in this very early 2008 season. Their defence has been great so far and rookie running back Chris Johnson gives their offence some explosiveness they have sorely been lacking in recent years.

The Problem: Kerry Collins? Really??? I just can't see Kerry Collins leading this team deep into the playoffs, but the AFC IS bad so who knows.

NFC

1. Dallas Cowboys

The Redskins played the game of their lives this past Sunday to beat Dallas, but the Cowboys still have to be the favourite to win the Super Bowl this year. Romo is playing like the best quarterback in the NFL and Marion Barber may be the best running back. Although T.O. may think he didn't get the ball enough in the Cowboys first loss, I happen to think he got it too much. The Cowboys didn't run with Barber as much as they should have. Barber's hard-nosed style of running takes a toll on opposing defences and usually tires them out by the fourth quarter.

The Problem: The only real weakness the Cowboys might have is Terrell Owens and his tendency to self-destruct. Tony Romo has blown a few big games in his career, but I don't believe that will continue. Romo is so good and there's no way I can see him retiring with an empty ring finger.

2. Green Bay Packers

The Packers haven't been impressive in their last two games, losing at home to the Cowboys and on the road against the Bucs, but I still see something special when I watch Aaron Rodgers throw the ball. Green Bay was one of the best teams last year with Brett Favre and despite a couple of mistakes in a tough loss to the Bucs this past Sunday, Aaron Rodgers is a much better decision-maker than his predecessor. The Packers offence will get back on track and their defence is still one of the better ones in the NFL, even with the injury to Al Harris.

The Problem: Coach McCarthy has been too conservative with his play calling so far this season. I'd like to see Rodgers throw more on first and second downs. Injuries in the secondary have also hurt the Packers, even though they have great depth at the position. 

3. New Orleans Saints

Don't look now, but the Saints defence seems to be improved. Rookie defensive back Tracy Porter has impressed me with his coverage skills and with additions like Jonathan Vilma and Randall Gay, the Saints defence could get better and better as the season goes on. Their offence is as potent as ever and no matter how many of their offensive weapons get hurt, Drew Brees will keep finding open receivers. Reggie Bush has looked rejuvenated this year and when Colston and Shockey come back, it could add a huge midseason boost to a well-coached team.

The Problem: The defence is still shaky, but if they continue to improve, they may end up being one of the NFC's better units before the season is over.

4. New York Giants

The Giants are undefeated so far this season and still have the same offence that led them to a Super Bowl last year. Justin Tuck has turned into a superstar and the whole defence has done an impressive job overcoming the losses of Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. The Giants aren't the NFL's best team, but they weren't last year either. If they can get hot again at the right time, lightning could strike twice.

The Problem: Eli Manning still isn't trustworthy and can look great one moment and then terrible a few minutes later. The defence is not as dominant without Umenyiora and Strahan.

5. Chicago Bears

Yes, I'm aware that I left the Eagles, Vikings, Bucs and Panthers off of my list of contenders, but I think the Bears could continue to surprise this season. Kyle Orton has impressed me in two big wins for the Bears and Chicago's offensive line looks good. So far, the Bears schedule has looked like this: at Indianapolis, at Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia. Those four teams have a combined record of 9-5 and both games Chicago lost were by a field goal. If the Bears defence can stay healthy, Chicago could challenge now that they finally seem to have a good quarterback.

The Problem: The Bears are 2-2 and have lost two close games. They need to figure out how to win those close ones, especially when they're at home. They also need to keep their defence healthy and if Orton can consistently have good games, they could end up being a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

**Stay tuned for my Week 5 picks ATS later on this week. I've had two terrible weeks in a row, but I'm going to guarantee .500 or better this week!

 

Week 4 picks - abbreviated version

Not much time to write this week so I'm just going to blow through my picks.


Arizona at New York Jets -1
Stat of the week: It was reported on Monday Night Football that Brett Favre has NEVER come back from 14 points down. Are you kidding me? That's a baffling stat. The man who has played more games than any other quarterback has never had a significant comeback? I don't think Favre deserves to be in the Hall of Fame after hearing that.

Instead of traveling to New York for Sunday, the Cardinals stayed there all week so that they could be ready to win on the road.

Pick: Arizona +1

Atlanta at Carolina -7
The Panthers secondary was exposed against the Vikings last week.

Pick: Atlanta +7

Cleveland at Cincinnati -3.5
The only coach worse than Romeo Crennel might be Marvin Lewis.

Pick: Cleveland +3.5

Denver -10 at Kansas City
Denver may not be totally up for this game, but K.C. might be the worst team in the league. Jay Cutler is having fun tearing apart defences so far this season. The Chiefs defence is pathetic so taking the points isn't an option here.

Pick: Denver -10

Green Bay at Tampa Bay -1
One game doesn't change anything: the Packers are still a contender in the NFC. The Bucs are not. Green Bay should absolutely win this game.

Pick: Green Bay +1

Houston at Jacksonville -7
Jags seem to be getting healthy and the Texans are a lousy team. Jax will be focused at home and won't let Houston hang around.

Pick: Jacksonville -7

Minnesota at Tennessee -3
Both teams have great defensive lines and great defences all around. Both teams make their living on offence by running. Whoever decides to pass first and has some success will win the game. I'm taking Kerry Collins and the Titans at home.

Pick: Tennessee -3

San Francisco at New Orleans -6
The 49ers have been putting up points and the Saints have been giving them up just as quickly. Both teams can score, but the Saints are banged up and San Francisco should be able to make this a game against a bad defence.

Pick: San Fran +6

Buffalo -8.5 at St. Louis
The Rams are in disarray and the Bills should take this game more seriously than they would have after almost losing to the Raiders at home last Sunday. Trent Green is no better than Marc Bulger and Stephen Jackson knows it.

Pick: Buffalo -8.5

San Diego -7.5 at Oakland
The Chargers need to win and will win big against a lousy Raiders team that will be booed at home this Sunday in a laugher.

Pick: San Diego -7.5

Washington at Dallas -10.5
Dallas will want to put on a show at home against one of their biggest rivals. The Redskins don't have the talent to keep up offensively or defensively.

Pick: Dallas -10.5

Philadelphia -3 at Chicago
Did anyone see what the Eagles did to Ben Roethlisberger last week? Kyle Orton is in trouble!

Pick: Philadelphia -3

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -5
I just can't go with Joe Flacco in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football.

Pick: Pitt -5

Best Bets: Arizona +1, Green Bay +1, San Fran +6, San Diego -7.5, Philadelphia -3, Pitt -5

Season Record: 22-24-2
Best Bets: 11-8-1

Still over .500 on my Best Bets (fingers crossed)!

NFL Week 3 Picks

Football fans rejoiced last weekend after being treated to an abundance of great games. The weekend was capped off on Monday with an uber-entertaining match-up between the Eagles and the Cowboys.

The Eagles looked as good as they could have against one of the top three teams in the NFL and I thought they might even pull off the win until I sat down at halftime and looked at the point spread for the second half.

Cowboys -7.

All Dallas had to do was win the game. Surely McNabb would pull his usual choke in the second half and Romo would rise to the occasion like he always does after making a mistake or two.

Some things never change. McNabb choked and the Cowboys won. T.O. may be a cocky asshole, but he's right about one thing isn't he? McNabb's a loser and will always cost his team in a close game against a tough team.

That brings us to this week...Pittsburgh at Philadelphia. The top team in the AFC is a three point underdog against the Eagles on the road.

Buyer beware: Roethlisberger has a sprained shoulder, but I'm taking the Steelers assuming it won't be much of a factor.

Just like the rest of the world, the Steelers saw the Monday night game and should be able to do a better job containing the Eagles offence than Dallas did in the first half. The Steelers have weapons all over the field and similar to the Cowboys, have a very strong and balance offensive attack.

McNabb will blow it again if it's close. The Steelers will win the game.

Take Pittsburgh +3.

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON -3

Not much of a surprise that the Saints defence allowed the Redskins offence to get back on track last weekend. The Cardinals have won two in a row, but haven't beaten anyone to write home about. The Redskins are a solid team and the Cardinals will disappoint as usual here.
Take Washington -3

CAROLINA at MINNESOTA -3

The Vikings are in trouble. They're 0-2 and have just announced that they have solved their problems at quarterback by inserting 37-year-old Gus Frerotte into a starting role. Last time I checked, Frerotte was a very average backup at best and that was when he was in his prime. The Panthers have looked good so far this season and now that Steve Smith is returning will be very hard to beat.
Take Carolina +3

CINCINNATI at NEW YORK GIANTS -13.5

When will the Bengals fire Marvin Lewis? It should have been years ago! Can the Giants stay motivated against another terrible team and win by more than two touchdowns? I hate this game either way, but I'm going to say yes because they're at home.
Take the Giants -13.5

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE -5

Are the Texans really as bad as they looked in Week 1 against the Steelers? Probably not. Can you trust the Titans spotting five points? Probably not. If I had to choose, I'd say Tennessee pulls this one out by a field goal.
Take Houston +5

KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA -5.5

The Falcons are going to be much improved this season with Matt Ryan at the helm. Atlanta played a terrible first half against Tampa Bay last week and dug themselves into a hole they couldn't get out of. The Falcons have a good running game and K.c. won't be able to do anything with Tyler Thigpen starting for them at quarterback. The Chiefs are one of the worst three teams in the league and the Falcons should win this game easily at home.
Take Atlanta -5.5

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND -12.5

I don't know about you, but I'm not crowning Matt Cassel yet. I still say the Dolphins will win more games than last year with Chad Pennington. The Dolphins always give the Patriots a fight.
Take Miami +12.5

OAKLAND at BUFFALO -9.5

Buffalo defends their home turf as well as anyone in the league. Don't expect this year's future AFC East division champ to let up against the stinky Raiders.
Take Buffalo -9.5

TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO -3

The Bears defence won't allow Griese to do much here. The Bucs offence may be worse than Chicago's.
Take Chicago -3

DETROIT at SAN FRANCISCO -4

Mike Martz will really want to make his old team look bad and vice versa, but does anyone really care. I'm not spotting points with either of these teams or watching one second of this game.
Take Detroit +4

NEW ORLEANS at DENVER -5.5

Jay Cutler looks like a future hall of famer and like I said last week, I firmly believe that Cutler and Aaron Rodgers are going to be mentioned in the same breath as Brady, Manning, Romo and Roethlisberger by season's end. I would feel so much more confident in this pick if the Broncos defence wasn't terrible, but Denver is good at home and the Saints are missing a key weapon in Colston.
Take Denver -5.5

ST. LOUIS at SEATTLE -9.5

The Seahawks are so ravaged by injuries that they lost to the 49ers at home last Sunday. In their current state they may actually be worse than the Rams. Can Bulger and company win a game? This might be their chance.
Take St. Louis +9.5 and throw a little on the moneyline if you dare.

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE -2.5

The Browns are 0-2, but they've lost against two of the NFL's best. Don't jump off the bandwagon yet folks! I'm not sold on Joe Flacco or the Ravens. Baltimore is not very good and the Browns offence should do some damage here.
Take Cleveland +2.5

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS -5

The Jags are too good of a team to go 0-3. After Peyton Manning, Bob Sanders is the most valuable player on the Colts and missing him is going to kill Indy's defence. Jacksonville should be able to make this one close and could put up 300 rushing yards with Sanders on the shelf.
Take Jacksonville +5

DALLAS -3 at GREEN BAY

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers defence will show here that they are the class of the NFC. I'm making it official: Green Bay is my Super Bowl prediction.
Take Green Bay +3

NEW YORK JETS at SAN DIEGO -9

Brett Favre will not play well against a San Diego team with revenge on their minds. The Chargers are going to take out their frustrations against Favre and a lousy Jets team on Monday night.
Take San Diego -9

BEST BETS: San Diego -9, Green Bay +3, Pittsburgh +3, Buffalo -9.5, Jax +5, Cleveland +2.5
Season Record ATS: 17-13-2
Best Bets Record ATS: 9-4-1

NFL Week 2

Season Record ATS: 11-5

Week 1 was full of surprises and I'm sure you don't need me to reiterate the fact that Tom Brady is out for the season and that this completely changes everything. Here are a few key observations that I made in Week 1.

1. The two teams that impressed me the most in Week 1 were the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Aaron Rodgers looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the league in his first start for Green Bay. Anytime the Packers let him throw, he showed off a lightning quick release and great accuracy. Rodgers also proved that he would not make stupid Brett Favre-like mistakes, meaning that he will not hurt the Packers in tough games this season.

The Packers have it all. They have what looks to be a great young quarterback, a ton of offensive weapons, a good running back, an offensive line that held up against the Vikings, and one of the top defences in the league. The only thing that worried me about the Packers was when Mike McCarthy became conservative and decided to kill the clock and go for a field goal going itno halftime, rather than taking another shot at the endzone.

In the AFC, the Steelers appear to be this year's Patriots. They scored early and often, beating up on the Houston Texans 38-17. Roethlisberger looks better than ever and has weapons all over the field. I loved their mentality in putting Houston away early and they look like the favourite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl at this point.

2. The Patriots will miss the playoffs without Tom Brady and the Buffalo Bills, not the New York Jets, will win the AFC East. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I really like Trent Edwards and the Bills this season. If the Bills can stay relatively healthy on defence, I really like their offence with Lee Evans, rookie James Hardy, Roscoe Parrish and Marshawn Lynch. It's easy to forget, but Buffalo is very tough to beat at home, especially when it gets colder later in the season.

3. The Colts will bounce back. Never read too much into one week. The Colts stunk last week against the Bears, but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. The Bears look like they might actually be good and Kyle Orton had a good showing in his first start of the season at quarterback. Has hell frozen over? Has Kyle Orton developed into the quarterback the Bears have been coveting for years? It's too early to be sure, but my gut feeling tells me he's going to have a good year. The Bears could be for real if their defence stays healthy and continues to look like the unit that had so much success a few years ago.

4. Washington and Minnesota will both finish 8-8 or worse and miss the playoffs. The overhyped Vikings were embarrassed by the Packers, while the Redskins were pretty much out of their game against the Giants right from the start. Tarvaris Jackson and Jason Campbell are both still bad. The Vikes defence couldn't put any pressure on Aaron Rodgers and Jared Allen's name wasn't even mentioned in relation to a play that he made the entire game.

5. How good are the Giants? They looked like a sure fire bet to repeat as NFC champs after one half against the Washington Redskins, but after the second half, I began to wonder if Eli Manning could even throw a pass anywhere near one of his wide receivers. The Giants are inconsistently good and the sad thing is, that's probably good enough to be the third or fourth best team in the NFC right now. Could they go on another streak like last season and make it back to the Super Bowl? Highly doubtful without Umenyiora.

BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE -5
The Jags will suffer with three offensive lineman on the shelf against a very tough Bills team. Buffalo should win this game outright.

take Buffalo +5

INDIANAPOLIS -2 at MINNESOTA
The Colts and Vikings both disappointed in Week 1. The Colts were exposed against a rejuvenated Bears defence, while the Vikes much-hyped defensive line couldn't put any pressure on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Peyton Manning has lost a lot of weight and didn't look like himself in Week 1. The Colts defence could not stop Matt Forte from running the ball on them, but I'm not going to read too much into one week as far as the Colts are concerned. Kyle Orton did a great job keeping the Colts honest on defence and I don't believe Tarvaris Jackson can do the same. Indy can load up on the run and shut down Vikes running back Adrian Peterson just like the Packers did last week.

Take Indy -2.

CHICAGO at CAROLINA -3
I've been telling myself that I should take the Panthers at home all week, but I can't help jumping on the Bears bandwagon after watching them win on Sunday night. Maybe I'm being fooled by one game, but I'm predicting that the Bears defence is back and Kyle Orton is good. Call me crazy, but Chicago comes into Carolina and pulls out a victory in what could shape up to be a great game.

Take Chicago +3

NEW YORK GIANTS -8.5 at ST. LOUIS
The Giants had a tough time finishing off the Redskins last week at home, failing to convert for touchdowns on numerous occasions. The Rams were annhilated by a jacked up Eagles team, but they should be ready to play this week in their home opener against the Super Bowl champs. The players should be ready, the crowd should be ready, and the Rams don't want to be humiliated in this one. Look for the Rams to keep it close.

Take St. Louis +8.5

GREEN BAY -3.5 at DETROIT
Memo to the Lions coaching staff: YOU'RE NOT A RUN-FIRST TEAM!! Despite having Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, the Lions tried to setup the passing game with the run last Sunday against the Falcons and ended up getting torched by rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. This week they'll face another very good young quarterback in Aaron Rodgers and although they may look to pass a little earlier in the game than last weekend, they'll face a much better defence this time. The Packers are as solid as they come and are extremely motivated to prove that Favre was just a small part of a good team last season. Look for them to take a no-nonsense approach in beating up on a crappy team.

Take Green Bay -3.5

NEW ORLEANS -1 at WASHINGTON
Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell was dreadful last Thursday against the Giants, but the Redskins are at home and if they can't make a game of this one than they might as well pack it in. The Saints will be without some key players, including Marques Colston, Scott Fujita and Randall Gay, but still should pull this game out because of a better quarterback and a better coach.

Take New Orleans -1.

OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY -3.5
The Chiefs will get an offensive boost with Damon Huard subbing in for the injured Brodie Croyle. They also get a boost by facing one of the worst teams in the league at Arrowhead. The Raiders looked like a college team on Monday night at home against the Broncos. Don't expect anything to change here.

Take KC -3.5

TENNESSEE at CINCINNATI -1
Bengals coach Marvin Lewis may be the worst coach in the league. He plays a conservative brand of football that does not make sense for his personnel and I believe it has led to Carson Palmer losing his confidence. The Bengals offensive line was destroyed last week by the Ravens and things are only going to get worse against a focused Titans team. Kerry Collins will start for Tennessee and that could be a good thing for the passing game in the short-term. Tennessee should win this game easily.

Take Tennessee +1

ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY -7
The Bucs are being overrated by the oddsmakers. The Falcons played well last week and are a solid team. Tampa Bay couldn't even get the job done against the Saints, who played a lousy game in Florida last weekend and still covered the spread. Now, the Bucs will be missing Jeff Garcia and are forced to rely on Brian Griese to score points. Tampa's weapons are extremely limited on offence and the Falcons are probably the better team here.

Take Atlanta +7

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE -6.5
The Seahawks are so decimated by injuries at the wide receiver position that backup quarterback Seneca Wallace may start out of position in this game. Nevertheless, Seattle is good at home and should be able to beat up on the 49ers.

Take Seattle -6.5

MIAMI at ARIZONA -6.5
The Dolphins came within one play of beating the Jets last week. Chad Pennington is still a big improvement for Miami at the quarterback position and they should be able to stay close enough to cover the spread against a Cardinals team that cannot be trusted laying this many points.

Take Miami +6.5

NEW ENGLAND at NEW YORK JETS -1.5
Tom Brady is out for the year and people are jumping off of the Pats bandwagon by the thousands. It's an insult to every single Patriots player that was a part of their perfect regular season last year that the Jets are favourite this week. It's an insult that Pats coach Belichick will surely stress to his team all week long. New England will be out to prove that they are not a one man team and will be ready for Brett Favre and his overhyped bunch this Sunday.

Take New England +1.5

SAN DIEGO -1 at DENVER
By the end of this season, Jay Cutler will be right at the top of the list when the best quarterbacks in the NFL are discussed. Top receiver Brandon Marshall makes his return from a one game suspension this week for the Broncos and will join highly touted rookie Eddie Royal on a suddenly potent offence. The better team should win at home.

Take Denver +1

PITTSBURGH -6 at CLEVELAND
I couldn't have agreed more with Espn writer Bill Simmons when he compared Browns coach Romeo Crennel to Art Shell earlier this week in one of his articles. I could have sworn that the helpless, disinterested looking coach was Shell whenever they cut to the coaches last Sunday. Pittsburgh is not fooling around this year and will put this game away against an inferior team.

Take Pittsburgh -6

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS -7
Dallas comes into this one as the favourite to win the NFC, but the Eagles are highly motivated and have one of the top secondaries in the league. The Cowboys won't be able to throw the ball down the field as easily as they did against the Browns and seven points is a lot to give up in what should be a game that goes under the total of 47 points.

Take Philly +7 and under the total of 47 points.

Best Bets: Green Bay -3.5, Ten +1, Atlanta +7, Buffalo +5, New England +1.5, Denver +1, Pitt -6, Philly +7, and Philly at Dallas under the total points of 47.

Last week's record on Best Bets: 4-1

NFL Picks: Week 1

It's been a long wait for football season and a summer made especially long by all the talk about my least favourite NFL player: Brett Favre.

Once again, Favre managed to draw a ton of media attention towards himself in the offseason. It's one media circus after another every year for Favre.

Early in his career, there was a yearly drama over something in his family-life and for the last half a decade, there has been a sickeningly, drawn out, yearly affair over the decision of whether he would retire. This decision would always undoubtedly be to return to football and would never be made until the last possible second.

Lost in these summer long media circuses were the feelings of former Packers first round draft pick Aaron Rodgers, who has been waiting extremely patiently for his chance to start. 

After Favre seemingly made up his mind to retire early this summer, the Packers gave the starting job to Rodgers and began to prepare for September. Rodgers must have choked on a piece of Wisconsin cheese when he heard the news that Favre was already sick of retirement and ready to steal his job again.

Thankfully, the Packers were sick of Favre's deliberate decision-making as well and told him he'd have to be the backup if he wanted to return. This led to the whole incident with the Vikings and ultimately, to his trade to the Jets and a new starting job.

Favre's first regular season game as quarterback of the Jets will be in Miami against former Jets quarterback Chad Pennington. 

Pennington is no superstar, but he's better than anything Miami has had in the last few years. He should provide a steadying influence to a young Dolphins team that will be pumped up as hell at home in Week 1 against the overhyped Jets.

If there's one thing I've learned watching Favre throughout his career it's that he's really good at beating up on inferior teams, but really bad when things get tough.

Things should be tough in Miami. The Dolphins may not be the better team here, but will be hungry to improve upon a horrific season last year. Expect them to put pressure on Favre and expect Brett to make mistakes which will cost the Jets the game.

Spread: Jets -3 

Pick: Miami +3

CINCINNATI -2 at BALTIMORE

The most intriguing thing about this game is going to be seeing Ocho Cinco on the back of Chad Johnson's jersey after he changed his name to Chad Ocho Cinco a few weeks ago. The Bengals have done nothing to fix their defence and still have one of the worst coaches I've ever seen in Marvin Lewis. The Ravens are getting points at home against the Bengals because they're starting a rookie quarterback by the name of Joe Flacco. Can Flacco really be any worse than Kyle Boller or Troy Smith? I doubt it. 

Pick: Baltimore +2

DETROIT -3 at ATLANTA

The Lions want to run, but their running game stinks, while Atlanta has a couple of very good running backs in Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Matt Ryan has a knack for making big plays when it counts and while most people expect Detroit receivers Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams to dominate in this game, I'm not so convinced. Both Johnson and Williams have been inconsistent performers so far in their short careers and Atlanta's defence isn't that bad. Look for the Falcons to pull of a minor upset at home.

Pick: Atlanta +3

HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH -6.5

The Steelers will throw the ball down the field to Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes forcing the Texans to do the same and utilize Andre Johnson and Andre Davis. In other words, there should be a lot of scoring in this game. Both defences are okay, but neither is dominant and both secondaries can be exposed. 

Pick: Over total points of 43

JACKSONVILLE -3 at TENNESSEE

I like the Titans in this game. I like the Titans this year. And I like Vince Young to have a breakout season. This may be one of those picks I'll regret after the Titans first series. Vince Young may start the game with three straight sacks, but I'm hoping it won't happen. Everyone thinks the Jags are such a sure thing this year and while I agree that they will be solid, I don't think they're a Super Bowl contender. The Jags will have trouble playing a tough Titans team on the road.

Pick: Tennessee +3

KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND -15.5 

The Pats will start off this year just like they did last year against the worst team in the NFL. I have no idea how Kansas City will score in this game and I have no idea how they're going to stop Tom Brady from doing exactly what he wants.

Pick: New England -15.5

SEATTLE at BUFFALO -1

Two very good defences will go head to head in this game, but the Bills have more weapons on offence. Buffalo's rookie wide receiver James Hardy is going to be one of the NFL's best and with Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish and Marshawn Lynch also on the squad, the Bills won't be easy to stop if Edwards does a decent job at quarterback. I expect Edwards to keep his starting job and the Bills always play well at home.

Pick: Buffalo -1

ST. LOUIS at PHILADELPHIA -8

The Eagles have the best defensive secondary in the league with Sheldon Brown, Asante Samuel, Lito Sheppard and Brian Dawkins patrolling downfield. Donovan McNabb may be healthy, but he doesn't have anyone to throw the ball to. The Rams will stink again this year and I don't see either team being able to put up many points in this game.

Pick: Under total points of 44

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS -3.5

The Saints should be motivated at home, especially considering their early season letdown last year. The Bucs have a solid quarterback in Jeff Garcia, but he has no weapons to help him out. The Saints are simply a much better team and should have no problems covering this spread at home.

Pick: New Orleans -3.5

ARIZONA -2.5 at SAN FRANCISCO

Something bothers me about Mike Martz and his decision to bench 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for J.T. O' Sullivan. San Francisco is going to be really bad again this year and Arizona may not be much better, but Warner is solid and should be able to pull out the win in this terrible, terrible game.

Pick: Arizona -2.5

CAROLINA at SAN DIEGO -9

Jake Delhomme says he's finally healthy, but with Steve Smith injured he won't have many options against San Diego's top notch defence. Hopefully, Delhomme will still be healthy at the end of this game.

Pick: San Diego -9

DALLAS -6 at CLEVELAND

This could be the most exciting game in Week 1 with T.O. and Braylon Edwards on the same field. Anything could happen in this one. Take the points with the home team.

Pick: Cleveland +6

CHICAGO at INDIANAPOLIS -9.5

Two killer defences going up against each other on Sunday night. The Colts offence isn't what it once was and the Bears offence still stinks.

Pick: Under total points of 44

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY -2.5

Tarvaris Jackson. The backup? Gus Frerotte.

Pick: Green Bay -2.5

DENVER -3 at OAKLAND

I'm extremely high on Jay Cutler, but I don't see how he's going to get the ball down the field against two of the best corners in the league (Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall) with no Brandon Marshall. The Raiders added Hall to improve a defence that was already very good and added two big time weapons on offence in Javon Walker and Darren McFadden. If JaMarcus Russell has a good year, the Raiders could contend for a playoff spot.

Pick: Oakland +3

Top Picks:  New England -15.5, Buffalo -1, St. Louis vs. Philly under 44, New Orleans -3.5, Chicago vs. Indianapolis under 44

Will try and write something by the end of Tuesday in response to Week 1. Enjoy!