Week 7

Another week and another batch of upsets. Staying away from double digit favourites has been the way to go so far this season, but something's got to give. This might be the week that the oddsmakers have finally figured out who's good and who's not.

Is there any one team that is head and shoulders above the rest? Definitely not!

I was not shocked at all to see the Giants fall to the Browns last week. As soon as I began to hear ridiculous comments about Eli Manning being better than Peyton, I knew the Giants were destined to lose on Monday Night.

Eli looked like the "Jeckyl and Hyde" quarterback that he really is on MNF and I don't think you'll be hearing comparisons to Peyton again anytime soon.

Peyton Manning and the Colts are beginning to look like legit contenders in the AFC after being considered finished by many just a few weeks ago.

The first few weeks of football has proven one major point: look at the big picture. Just because the Colts shredded the Ravens last week does not mean they can't be shredded by the Packers.

That being said, the Packers are still decimated by injuries to their defence and their secondary will be without Atari Bigby and Al Harris on Sunday. Indy's offence is feeling good and they shouldn't have a letdown at Lambeau.
Take Indy -2

Baltimore at Miami -3

Chad Pennington should be able to take advantage of a worn out defence that is missing some key players in their secondary in Miami this weekend.
Take Miami -3

Dallas -7 at St. Louis

Whether it's Romo or Johnson, the Cowboys should take care of the Rams.
Take Dallas -7

Minnesota at Chicago -3.5

Memo to Lovie Smith: Unleash the Kyle Orton air show! The Bears can pass and lost last week because they were too conservative against the Falcons. A bonehead decision by the Bears to do a short kick gave Atlanta the field position they needed to kick a late field goal and win the game. The Bears need to win and have the better quarterback.
Take Chicago -3.5

New Orleans at Carolina -3

The answer to handicapping the NFC South has been to take the home team so far this season, but trends are made to be broken. The Saints are heating up. Drew Brees is on fire and finally should have some decent weapons with Colston and Shockey returning this Sunday. Look for the Saints to take advantage of a vulnerable Panthers secondary.
Take New Orleans +3

Pittsburgh -9.5 at Cincinnati

I don't see the Bengals making this a game without Carson Palmer. Pittsburgh should be ready to play coming off of their bye.
Take Pittsburgh -9.5

San Diego at Buffalo pick'em

The Bills are missing CB Terrence McGee and that could hurt them in this game. The Chargers looked great against the Patriots, but does that really mean anything?
Take Buffalo pick'em

San Francisco at New York Giants -10.5

The 49ers are not a very "live" dog here, especially after the Giants were embarassed on MNF.
Take New York -10.5

Tennessee -9 at Kansas City

The Titans are the league's only undefeated team. They might take a breather here, but should still win the game.
Take KC +9

Detroit at Houston -9.5

I cannot bet on Houston to win by 10 points.
Take Detroit +9.5

Cleveland at Washington -7.5

Are the Redskins really that much better than the Browns?? I'd take Cleveland's offence over Washington's any day. That's enough of a reason for me to take more than a touchdown here.
Take Cleveland +7.5

New York Jets -3.5 at Oakland

Here's your live dog of the week! Favre will turn the ball over four times and the Raiders will win big over the Jets in this week's major upset.
Take Oakland +3.5 and sprinkle the moneyline

Seattle at Tampa Bay -10.5

Jeff Garcia's still got it and he's a man on a mission right now. The Bucs have a killer defence and the Seahawks have nothing going for them.
Take Tampa Bay -10.5

Denver at New England -3

WHAT?! The Patriots are favourites? One of the best passing attacks in the league going up against possibly the worst secondary. Matt Cassel is absolutely terrible and the Patriots are absolutely terrible! Bill Belichick is not God. This team is too bad for even Belichick to coach to a winning record. Make your money here.
Take Denver +3

Best Bets:
Denver +3, Indy -2, Oakland +3.5, Cleveland +7.5, Pitt -9.5, Chicago -3.5, New Orleans +3, Miami -3

One more change!!!

Adding TB -1 over Carolina

*Tampa needs the game more and they are at home. They have the better defence and Jeff Garcia is starting at quarterback. Take Tampa and put it in my top plays. 

Philly at SF under 42

Both teams are trying hard in San Fran. Philly's D should have no trouble putting pressure on O' Sullivan and their offence has been struggling. I see a 24-10 Philly win here. TOP PLAY

Best Bets AND Pick Changes...

I am switching my picks in two games:

Houston -3 over Miami
* Houston is a desperate team at home. Miami can't continue to fool teams with their wildcat formation.

New Orleans -7 over Oakland
* Colston is coming back and I realized that backing Oakland on the road against a desperate team is a terrible idea.

Best Bets:
Houston -3, New Orleans -7, NY Jets -6.5 *or -9.5 now (I still like it), Chicago -3, Green Bay moneyline, Dallas -5, Philly -4.5, San Diego -5.5

NFL Week 6 picks

My record is so bad that I've purposely lost track of it. Here are my picks for this week!!

Baltimore at Indianapolis -3.5
The Ravens have a very good defence, but the Colts keep finding ways to win. With two miraculous wins a row, the Colts must be feeling pretty good about themselves. On the flip side, the Ravens have endured two very tough losses to the Steelers and Titans. They'll suffer another one here, but won't put up as much resistance.

Pick: Indy -3.5

Carolina at Tampa Bay -1
Carolina is a strong team. Their one weakness might be in their secondary, but I don't believe TB can take advantage with their weak receiving corps.

Pick: Carolina +1

Chicago -3 at Atlanta
Atlanta's win over a banged up Packers team has them overvalued here. The Bears are a contender and Orton is for real.

Pick: Chicago -3

Cincinnati at New York Jets -7.5
Without Carson Palmer, the Bengals won't be able to score. Brett Favre loves putting on a show against bad teams.

Pick: NY Jets -7.5

Detroit at Minnesota -13
With Gus Frerotte throwing the ball well, Adrian Peterson should have a field day against the Lions.

Pick: Minny -13

Miami at Houston -3
Who knows what will happen in this game. Take the points.

Pick: Miami +3

Oakland at New Orleans -7
Drew Brees may have trouble finding the open man against a good Raiders secondary. New Orleans will win a close one.

Pick: Oakland +7

St. Louis at Washington -13.5
Will the Rams ever lose by less than a touchdown again? Not here.

Pick: Washington -13.5

Jacksonville at Denver -3
I am officially pronouncing the Jags dead. Their defence is terrible and they couldn't even put significant pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. The Broncos should have an easy time at home against a week defence.

Pick: Denver -3

Dallas -5 at Arizona
The Cowboys are sick of hearing about how they can't put teams away. This could be a long day for Kurt Warner.

Pick: Dallas -5

Green Bay at Seattle -2
Aaron Rodgers and Matt Hasselbeck are both banged up. The Packers defence has been decimated by injuries, but I still feel like they're the better team. Stay away if you can.

Pick: Green Bay +2

Philadelphia -4.5 at San Francisco
The 49ers have allowed the most sacks in the league, while the Eagles lead the league in sacks.

Pick: Philly -4.5

New England at San Diego -5
Matt Cassel is very, very bad. The Chargers are facing a must win situation at home on national television. They are easily the "bettor" team here.

Pick: San Diego -5

New York Giants -7.5 at Cleveland
I just have a feeling that the Browns are going to make this a game on Monday Night Football. This is Cleveland's Super Bowl and the Giants are feeling invincible these days.

Pick: Cleveland +7.5

NCAA Football Saturday picks

Sat:

Texas at Oklahoma -6

Colt McCoy has been really good thus far, but I'll spot the points with Bradford and the Sooners at home.
Take Oklahoma -6

UTAH -23.5 over Wyoming
The Utes should destroy Wyoming.

Vandy -2.5 over MISSISSIPI STATE
The Commodores are for real and should continue to fly up the rankings with a win here.

TEXAS TECH -21 over Nebraska
Tech is destroying everyone and Nebraska is not up to the task of stopping this prolific offence.

Notre Dame +8.5 over UNC
Notre Dame is getting better and fast. This game could easily go either way and 8.5 points is way too many for the Tar Heels to be spotting.

GEORGIA -12.5 over Tennessee
I'm going to keep going against the Vols until they actually cover.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7.5 over Temple

Lsu +6 over FLORIDA
This is another game where either team could easily win. Take the points and the better all around team with the Tigers.

Oklahoma St. +14 over MISSOURI
I just have a feeling on this one.

Penn State -6 over WISCONSIN
Penn State is just a way better team and should have no problem beating up on the Badgers.

Flying off the handle

Another terrible day of picks! It seems I've completely lost the feel of the NFL season, but who hasn't? Here's a few observations on the day:

*U WHAT?! In another genius move by Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, Cincy decided to throw a one-on-one fade pass to Ben Utecht on a two point conversion attempt. The two pointer would have tied the game. The Bengals have so many great weapons at the wide receiver position! Why would they throw a fade pattern to Utecht on a game deciding play??

*Green Bay allowed Aaron Rodgers to play and then stay in the game despite being obviously hurt in a home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Rodgers was shaking his throwing arm in pain in the fourth quarter and the Packers still refused to pull him from the game. I understand Rodgers trying to stay in the game, but the Packers should have pulled the plug. It's a long season and now Rodgers will probably have to sit out a week or two to heal or risk playing with a sore arm the whole season. I don't believe he would have thrown that late interception if he had been 100 percent. Stupid move to risk your season for a home game against Atlanta that probably could have been won by Matt Flynn or Brian Brohm. What is Green Bay thinking?

*Houston backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels led the Texans in a monstrous collapse against the Colts. Leading by 17 in the fourth quarter, Rosenfels fumbled twice in four plays when all Houston needed to do was take time off the clock. Rosenfels played a pretty good game until the last few minutes and could have been the permanent starter if he hadn't completely choked. That would have been a huge home win against Indy.

*Meanwhile, the Colts do it again and now sit at 2-2. 

*The Dolphins eased by the Chargers in their second big upset in a row. Rivers and Tomlinson played terrible for San Diego. Darren Sproles is looking like the best running back in San Diego this season. Yes, I AM saying that LT looks bad.

*In a shocking development, Denver's defence put together a half decent game at home and led Denver to a win against the Bucs.

* New England beat San Francisco on the road by a score of 30-21. The Pats only won this game because the 49ers stunk. New England does not look good. Matt Cassel is not the second coming of Tom Brady. His movement in the pocket is beyond bad. He has no idea how to avoid pressure and instead of stepping up when the pocket breaks down, he usually stumbles into a lineman and falls down. The Patriots defence looks pretty bad too and they are definitely missing defensive backs Randall Gay and Asante Samuel, who both left in the offseason.

*Ben Roethlisberger continues to amaze me by winning games, despite taking more hits than any other quarterback in the NFL. Any other QB would be out for the season by now, but Roethlisberger has somehow survived thus far without any serious injuries. If the Steelers can stay in games, Roethlisberger will lead them to victory every time. Ben may be the best playmaker in the NFL. 

Stay tuned for more this week...

 

Week 5 picks

Sorry they're EXTREMELY late. Been a little sick this week.

Picks:
Green Bay -5 over Atlanta
Detroit +3.5 over Chicago
Houston +4 over Indy
K.C. +9.5 over Carolina
SD -6.5 over Miami
Seattle +7 over NY Giants
Ten -2 over Baltimore
Philly -6 over Washington
Den -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Buf +1.5 over Arizona
Dal -16 over Cincy
NE -3.5 over San Fran
Jax -5 over Pitt
N.O. -3 over Minny

Best Bets:
GB -5
Houston +4
Seattle +7
Ten -2
Buf +1.5
NE -3.5
Jax -5
N.O. -3